Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
